This past week I sat down to play some Deuces Wild video poker. About a dozen times, I’ve been given a 4-Card Straight Flush, 4-Card (Wild) Royal or Four of a Kind. I missed having the hand I wanted 12 times.
The odds of hitting the hands are slightly different for the three above hands. I have a 4 in 47 chance of hitting Five of a Kind, a 6 in 47 chance of hitting a Straight Flush and 4 in 47 of hitting a Royal while still having a chance to draw a Straight Flush instead.
For the sake of simplicity, we would say that on average I should hit the top 5 in 47 or just over 10 percent of the time. The odds of not doing more than 12 attempts are just over 25 percent of visiting KaptenCasino.
Obviously things didn’t go my way, but we’re not talking about questioning whether the machine is fair.
Come to think of it, I forgot to mention that my first hand that was dealt was 4-Card Wild Royal and I actually hit that one. So, I guess I actually went 1 to 13. The probability of hitting 1 in 13 is more like 35.9 percent. This is the most likely result for 13 hands. It is unlikely that I will press 0 or 2.
So basically, given the small sample size, I’m exactly where I expected it to be. Of course, since I hit the first and missed the next 12, I didn’t feel very good about what I was doing – even though financially I was pretty close even.
When playing video poker, how you feel should be discarded. You have to play like Vulcan – with pure logic. In the case I’ve described, there aren’t many options for how you play your hand.
But what if after skipping the Straight and Royal Flushes you decide to only hold Deuces? Two Deuces is worth 3.27 on our strategy table, while 4-Card Royal is worth 4.52. That’s a big margin. If you only have 1 Deuce, the expected value is 1.03. 4-Card Straight Flush is 2.23, more than double, while 4-Card Royal is 3.25, more than triple.
What if the situation is reversed? You hit many of these hands consecutively and you decide to start holding a 4-Card Straight-Card with 2 Deuces predicting you will get a Straight Flush. In this case, the 4-Card Straight Flush is not in our strategy table because the expected value is below the Two Deuces value.
What happened in the past, 100 pasts or 1 million past is completely irrelevant. Yes, the engine has hot scratches and cold scratches. To be more accurate, the math tells us that there will be hot and cold streaks. The engine plays no part in it.
10 TOP SITE :